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拥抱政策支持的细分成长领域——2019年中信建投教育行业投资策略

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年12月12日 07:03:27
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(教)(育)(行)(业)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(价)(今)(年)(大)(多)(表)(现)(不)(佳)(。从)(港)(股)(的)(民)(办)(学)(校)(板)(块)(上)(市)(公)(司)(来)(看)(,除)(中)(教)(控)(股)(和)(新)(高)(教)(集)(团)(之)(外)(,其)(他)(民)(办)(学)(校)(集)(团)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(价)(2018年)(均)(出)(现)(了)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(下)(跌)(,截)(至)(2018年)(12月)(1日)(,义)(务)(教)(育)(阶)(段)(收)(入)(占)(比)(最)(高)(的)(天)(立)(教)(育)(2018年)(上)(市)(后)(至)(今)(跌)(幅)(达)(到)(-54.5%、睿)(见)(教)(育)(跌)(幅)(达)(到)(-31.2%;美)(股)(K12培)(训)(板)(块)(来)(看)(,好)(未)(来)(、新)(东)(方)(2018年)(股)(价)(收)(益)(率)(分)(别)(为)(-7.3%和)(-41.6%;以)(幼)(儿)(园)(为)(主)(业)(的)(美)(股)(上)(市)(公)(司)(红)(黄)(蓝)(2018年)(至)(今)(股)(价)(跌)(幅)(为)(-55.3%。
A股)(市)(场)(来)(看)(,教)(育)(资)(产)(证)(券)(化)(依)(然)(稳)(步)(推)(进)(。今)(年)(10月)(科)(斯)(伍)(德)(发)(布)(公)(告)(,拟)(收)(购)(龙)(门)(教)(育)(50.24%剩)(余)(股)(权)(,交)(易)(完)(成)(后)(上)(市)(公)(司)(将)(持)(有)(龙)(门)(教)(育)(100%股)(权)(;11月)(立)(思)(辰)(拟)(以)(7.02亿)(元)(现)(金)(收)(购)(中)(文)(未)(来)(39%股)(权)(,收)(购)(完)(成)(后)(上)(市)(公)(司)(将)(持)(股)(中)(文)(未)(来)(100%;11月)(三)(垒)(股)(份)(收)(购)(美)(吉)(姆)(已)(完)(成)(第)(一)(期)(支)(付)(,美)(吉)(姆)(的)(股)(东)(已)(变)(更)(为)(上)(市)(公)(司)(;12月)(公)(考)(培)(训)(龙)(头)(中)(公)(教)(育)((作)(价)(185亿)(元)()借)(壳)(亚)(夏)(汽)(车)(上)(市)(获)(得)(证)(监)(会)(审)(核)(通)(过)(。
2展)(望)(2019年)(,培)(训)(领)(域)(建)(议)(重)(点)(关)(注)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(和)(素)(质)(教)(育)(
我)(们)(认)(为)(2019年)(投)(资)(教)(育)(行)(业)(应)(该)(规)(避)(政)(策)(重)(点)(管)(制)(的)(细)(分)(领)(域)(,建)(议)(培)(训)(领)(域)(重)(点)(关)(注)(政)(策)(支)(持)(的)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(和)(素)(质)(教)(育)(,民)(办)(学)(校)(领)(域)(重)(点)(关)(注)(高)(教)(板)(块)(。其)(中)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(领)(域)(中)(最)(为)(看)(好)(教)(师)(资)(格)(考)(试)(及)(招)(录)(培)(训)(市)(场)(。
非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(——教)(师)(资)(格)(考)(试)(及)(招)(录)(培)(训)(市)(场)(迎)(来)(红)(利)(
根)(据)(弗)(若)(斯)(特)(沙)(利)(文)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,国)(内)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(培)(训)(收)(入)(由)(2013年)(的)(546亿)(元)(增)(长)(至)(2017年)(的)(987亿)(元)(,年)(均)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(约)(为)(16%,其)(中)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(培)(训)(、事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(和)(教)(师)(招)(录)(考)(试)(培)(训)(的)(营)(收)(规)(模)(由)(2013年)(的)(190亿)(元)(上)(升)(至)(2017年)(的)(364亿)(元)(,年)(均)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(约)(为)(17.6%,高)(于)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(教)(育)(市)(场)(的)(平)(均)(增)(速)(,市)(场)(规)(模)(合)(计)(占)(比)(稳)(定)(保)(持)(在)(35%以)(上)(,是)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(培)(训)(的)(主)(要)(集)(中)(区)(。2018年)(教)(师)(招)(录)(考)(试)(培)(训)((及)(资)(格)(证)(考)(试)()市)(场)(规)(模)(为)(157亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(17.2%,未)(来)(将)(受)(益)(于)(教)(师)(资)(格)(证)(考)(试)(难)(度)(提)(升)(和)(教)(师)(数)(量)(短)(缺)(。
教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(及)(教)(师)(招)(录)(培)(训)(
教)(师)(资)(格)(证)(认)(证)(考)(试)(改)(革)(后)(难)(度)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(,为)(考)(培)(市)(场)(带)(来)(更)(大)(给)(予)(。2015年)(教)(育)(部)(公)(布)(《中)(小)(学)(教)(师)(资)(格)(考)(试)(暂)(行)(办)(法)(》,国)(内)(教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(正)(式)(迎)(来)(大)(变)(革)(,具)(体)(变)(化)(如)(下)(:(1)省)(考)(改)(为)(全)(国)(统)(考)(,由)(教)(育)(部)(考)(试)(中)(心)(统)(一)(制)(定)(考)(试)(标)(准)(和)(考)(试)(大)(纲)(,组)(织)(笔)(试)(和)(面)(试)(试)(题)(,并)(建)(立)(试)(题)(库)(。师)(范)(生)(与)(非)(师)(范)(生)(不)(再)(区)(分)(,均)(需)(参)(加)(国)(家)(组)(织)(的)(教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(;(2)教)(师)(资)(格)(终)(身)(制)(也)(被)(打)(破)(,要)(求)(每)(5年)(定)(期)(注)(册)(一)(次)(,注)(册)(条)(件)(以)(师)(德)(表)(现)(、年)(度)(考)(核)(和)(培)(训)(情)(况)(为)(主)(要)(依)(据)(。改)(革)(后)(教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(呈)(现)(出)(考)(试)(形)(式)(综)(合)(多)(样)(化)(、考)(试)(科)(目)(增)(多)(及)(考)(试)(难)(度)(增)(加)(的)(特)(点)(。
2011年)(以)(来)(全)(国)(教)(师)(资)(格)(考)(试)(参)(与)(省)(份)(快)(速)(增)(加)(,2011年)(为)(2个)(省)(份)(浙)(江)(与)(湖)(北)((试)(点)()、2014年)(为)(13个)(省)(份)((试)(点)()、2015年)(为)(22个)(省)(份)(、2016年)(至)(今)(均)(为)(28个)(省)(份)(。但)(是)(改)(革)(的)(背)(后)(则)(是)(教)(师)(资)(格)(证)(通)(过)(率)(的)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,据)(教)(育)(部)(统)(计)(,在)(2011年)(开)(始)(的)(前)(2年)(的)(试)(点)(工)(作)(中)(,一)(共)(组)(织)(了)(4次)(全)(国)(性)(考)(试)(,6省)(参)(加)(教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(的)(人)(数)(约)(为)(28.1万)(人)(,其)(中)(约)(7.7万)(人)(通)(过)(考)(试)(,通)(过)(率)(为)(27.5%,而)(在)(改)(革)(前)(,各)(试)(点)(省)(考)(的)(通)(过)(率)(一)(般)(在)(70%以)(上)(。即)(使)(到)(了)(2017年)(下)(半)(年)(,国)(内)(大)(部)(分)(省)(份)(的)(教)(师)(资)(格)(认)(证)(考)(试)(通)(过)(率)(仍)(偏)(低)(,2017年)(下)(半)(年)(上)(海)(、济)(南)(、河)(南)(、江)(苏)(、广)(东)(的)(考)(试)(通)(过)(率)(分)(别)(为)(34.5%、26.6%、17.5%、27.5%、26%。
与)(此)(同)(时)(近)(几)(年)(,我)(国)(教)(师)(资)(格)(证)(报)(考)(人)(数)(快)(速)(上)(升)(,山)(东)(、江)(西)(、四)(川)(、福)(建)(四)(个)(省)(份)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(的)(报)(考)(人)(数)(分)(别)(为)(50.13、17.51、23.63、11.4万)(人)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(7.1%、54.7%、56.8%、44.3%。而)(K12培)(训)(机)(构)(合)(规)(性)(的)(提)(高)(也)(将)(带)(动)(教)(师)(资)(格)(考)(试)(未)(来)(几)(年)(的)(快)(速)(增)(加)(。
伴)(随)(着)(我)(国)(新)(生)(儿)(数)(量)(的)(攀)(升)(,国)(内)(教)(师)(紧)(缺)(度)(不)(断)(加)(剧)(,带)(动)(我)(国)(新)(增)(教)(师)(数)(量)(快)(速)(攀)(升)(。以)(学)(前)(教)(育)(+义)(务)(教)(育)(+高)(中)(教)(育)(阶)(段)(的)(新)(增)(教)(师)(数)(量)(统)(计)(,2009年)(为)(14.2万)(人)(,至)(2017年)(为)(39.5万)(人)(,虽)(然)(中)(间)(有)(所)(反)(复)(但)(整)(体)(来)(看)(国)(内)(每)(年)(新)(增)(教)(师)(数)(量)(上)(行)(是)(大)(的)(趋)(势)(。整)(个)(教)(育)(资)(格)(考)(试)(培)(训)(及)(招)(录)(培)(训)(的)(市)(场)(规)(模)(2017年)(达)(到)(157亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(17.2%,预)(计)(未)(来)(几)(年)(仍)(将)(快)(速)(增)(加)(。
公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(培)(训)(
公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(主)(要)(分)(为)(国)(家)(公)(务)(员)(和)(地)(方)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(考)(试)(两)(大)(类)(,内)(容)(包)(括)(笔)(试)(和)(面)(试)(两)(部)(分)(。国)(家)(公)(务)(员)(的)(招)(考)(简)(称)(“国)(考)(”,时)(间)(较)(为)(确)(定)(,笔)(试)(时)(间)(为)(每)(年)(11月)(的)(第)(四)(个)(周)(末)(;地)(方)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(时)(间)(则)(各)(省)(份)(差)(异)(很)(大)(,而)(地)(方)(公)(务)(员)(的)(招)(考)(时)(间)(由)(各)(地)(自)(行)(决)(定)(并)(组)(织)(实)(施)(,部)(分)(省)(份)(一)(年)(会)(有)(春)(秋)(两)(次)(参)(考)(考)(试)(。
行)(业)(层)(面)(来)(看)(,2017年)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(培)(训)(的)(市)(场)(规)(模)(已)(接)(近)(100亿)(元)(,参)(培)(渗)(透)(率)(稳)(中)(有)(升)(,2017年)(公)(考)(培)(训)(的)(渗)(透)(率)(达)(到)(26.5%,受)(国)(内)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(及)(就)(业)(形)(势)(严)(峻)(的)(影)(响)(,公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(考)(试)(对)(毕)(业)(求)(职)(人)(员)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(不)(减)(,弗)(若)(斯)(特)(沙)(利)(文)(报)(告)(显)(示)(,为)(应)(对)(激)(烈)(的)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(竞)(争)(,公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(的)(学)(员)(总)(数)(逐)(年)(增)(加)(,由)(2013年)(的)(92.8万)(人)(增)(至)(2017年)(的)(137.5万)(人)(,年)(均)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(约)(为)(10.3%。从)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(环)(境)(来)(看)(,随)(着)(公)(务)(员)(审)(核)(标)(准)(日)(益)(严)(苛)(,未)(来)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(的)(渗)(透)(率)(仍)(有)(较)(大)(提)(升)(空)(间)(。
国)(家)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(一)(直)(是)(报)(考)(的)(热)(点)(,2018年)(国)(家)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(招)(录)(人)(数)(为)(2.85万)(人)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(5.2%,但)(当)(年)(报)(考)(人)(数)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(15.24%,达)(到)(113.4万)(人)(,导)(致)(报)(名)(录)(取)(率)(下)(降)(到)(2.5%。而)(受)(2019年)(国)(考)(压)(缩)(县)(级)(以)(下)(招)(录)(名)(额)(,2018年)(10月)(发)(布)(的)(《中)(央)(机)(关)(及)(其)(直)(属)(机)(构)(2019年)(度)(考)(试)(录)(用)(公)(务)(员)(简)(章)(》中)(将)(2019年)(国)(考)(招)(录)(人)(数)(从)(2.85万)(人)(大)(幅)(缩)(至)(1.45万)(人)(,创)(十)(年)(新)(低)(。短)(期)(来)(看)(,国)(考)(难)(度)(提)(升)(有)(利)(于)(参)(培)(率)(的)(提)(升)(,但)(是)(长)(期)(将)(影)(响)(参)(加)(考)(试)(的)(人)(数)(。
近)(几)(年)(,我)(国)(地)(方)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(招)(录)(人)(数)(先)(升)(后)(降)(,从)(2013年)(的)(15.7万)(人)(增)(加)(至)(2015年)(的)(18.0万)(人)(,再)(降)(至)(2017年)(的)(17.0万)(人)(。报)(考)(人)(数)(则)(从)(2014年)(以)(来)(缓)(慢)(下)(滑)(,从)(2014年)(的)(439万)(人)(,降)(至)(2017年)(的)(395万)(人)(,但)(下)(降)(速)(度)(放)(缓)(。
事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(
事)(业)(单)(位)(是)(指)(国)(家)(为)(了)(社)(会)(公)(益)(目)(的)(而)(设)(立)(的)(机)(构)(,不)(属)(于)(政)(府)(机)(构)(。事)(业)(单)(位)(考)(试)(又)(称)(事)(业)(编)(制)(考)(试)(,我)(国)(事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(考)(试)(通)(常)(包)(括)(笔)(试)(和)(面)(试)(两)(部)(分)(,主)(要)(是)(由)(用)(人)(单)(位)(的)(人)(事)(部)(门)(委)(托)(省)(市)(级)(所)(属)(的)(人)(事)(考)(试)(中)(心)(来)(命)(题)(和)(组)(织)(报)(名)(等)(,目)(前)(尚)(无)(全)(国)(或)(全)(省)(市)(的)(统)(一)(招)(录)(考)(试)(,故)(事)(业)(单)(位)(历)(年)(的)(招)(录)(岗)(位)(及)(人)(数)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。
2017年)(我)(国)(事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(收)(入)(为)(108亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(15.7%,行)(业)(增)(长)(的)(驱)(动)(力)(主)(要)(是)(培)(训)(人)(次)(的)(增)(加)(,2017年)(底)(,我)(国)(事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(的)(渗)(透)(率)(为)(25.6%,略)(低)(于)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(,事)(业)(单)(位)(由)(于)(其)(考)(试)(试)(题)(难)(度)(相)(对)(于)(公)(务)(员)(考)(试)(较)(低)(而)(受)(到)(青)(睐)(,在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(下)(预)(计)(将)(更)(受)(到)(求)(职)(者)(青)(睐)(。
素)(质)(教)(育)(培)(训)(——早)(教)(市)(场)(迎)(来)(人)(口)(红)(利)(
早)(教)(市)(场)(不)(同)(于)(应)(试)(教)(育)(培)(训)(,更)(多)(是)(寓)(教)(于)(乐)(的)(素)(质)(培)(养)(。0-3岁)(婴)(幼)(儿)(的)(早)(教)(课)(程)(与)(高)(年)(龄)(层)(的)(培)(训)(不)(同)(,相)(比)(K12阶)(段)(的)(专)(科)(辅)(导)(,早)(教)(则)(是)(更)(注)(重)(沉)(浸)(式)(的)(寓)(教)(于)(乐)(,教)(学)(成)(果)(也)(并)(非)(像)(考)(试)(成)(绩)(这)(样)(带)(有)(明)(确)(功)(利)(性)(与)(可)(察)(性)(,而)(是)(引)(导)(婴)(幼)(儿)(在)(早)(期)(阶)(段)(塑)(造)(更)(好)(的)(性)(格)(与)(全)(方)(位)(能)(力)(。早)(教)(机)(构)(大)(都)(已)(具)(备)(基)(本)(的)(音)(乐)(课)(程)(、脑)(力)(课)(程)(、艺)(术)(课)(程)(等)(,在)(此)(基)(础)(上)(,一)(些)(机)(构)(还)(融)(入)(了)(积)(木)(教)(具)(、创)(意)(思)(维)(、亲)(子)(互)(动)(等)(元)(素)(,试)(图)(开)(发)(具)(有)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(独)(特)(课)(程)(吸)(引)(家)(长)(,并)(以)(此)(打)(造)(具)(有)(高)(辨)(识)(度)(的)(品)(牌)(。
全)(面)(二)(胎)(政)(策)(大)(幕)(拉)(开)(,早)(教)(领)(域)(迎)(来)(政)(策)(利)(好)(。从)(2000年)(的)(“双)(独)(二)(孩)(”到)(2011年)(中)(国)(各)(地)(全)(面)(实)(施)(二)(胎)(政)(策)(,到)(2013年)(的)(“单)(独)(二)(孩)(”,再)(到)(2016年)(我)(国)(“全)(面)(二)(孩)(”政)(策)(的)(实)(施)(,近)(几)(年)(我)(国)(新)(出)(生)(儿)(人)(口)(数)(量)(总)(体)(上)(呈)(不)(断)(攀)(升)(趋)(势)(,从)(2012年)(的)(1630万)(人)(左)(右)(快)(速)(增)(加)(到)(2017年)(的)(1720万)(左)(右)(。
上)(海)(地)(区)(来)(看)(,早)(教)((0-3岁)()市)(场)(渗)(透)(率)(近)(4成)(,幼)(教)((3-6岁)()市)(场)(渗)(透)(率)(超)(7成)(,艺)(术)(类)(课)(程)(和)(开)(发)(智)(力)(是)(主)(要)(需)(求)(点)(。根)(据)(上)(海)(市)(质)(量)(协)(会)(用)(户)(评)(价)(中)(心)(发)(布)(的)(《上)(海)(幼)(儿)(早)(期)(教)(育)((0-6岁)()状)(况)(调)(查)(》报)(告)(数)(据)(,0-3岁)(孩)(子)(中)(有)(39.9%已)(开)(始)(上)(课)(,4-6岁)(则)(有)(73.5%已)(参)(加)(培)(训)(班)(,在)(这)(些)(家)(庭)(中)(,有)(59.3%至)(少)(报)(名)(了)(2门)(课)(程)(,63.2%的)(孩)(子)(每)(周)(参)(加)(课)(程)(时)(间)(为)(1-2个)(小)(时)(。从)(课)(程)(类)(型)(来)(看)(,选)(择)(各)(类)(艺)(术)(型)(培)(训)(课)(的)(比)(例)(最)(高)(达)(到)(47%,其)(次)(是)(亲)(自)(游)(戏)(类)((达)(到)(46.5%)、学)(科)(类)((达)(到)(43.4%),从)(选)(择)(早)(教)(机)(构)(的)(原)(因)(来)(看)(,主)(要)(包)(括)(开)(发)(智)(力)(、不)(让)(孩)(子)(输)(在)(起)(跑)(线)(上)(、升)(学)(择)(校)(需)(要)(等)(。
从)(新)(浪)(教)(育)(在)(全)(国)(抽)(样)(调)(研)(的)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,全)(国)(的)(家)(长)(们)(在)(学)(前)(教)(育)(的)(支)(出)(也)(逐)(年)(水)(涨)(船)(高)(。学)(龄)(前)(儿)(童)(的)(教)(育)(支)(出)(已)(占)(家)(庭)(年)(收)(入)(的)(26.39%,全)(国)(36.12%学)(龄)(前)(儿)(童)(每)(年)(在)(辅)(导)(班)(花)(费)(2001-5000元)(,根)(据)(上)(海)(地)(区)(的)(抽)(样)(调)(研)(显)(示)(,参)(与)(早)(幼)(教)(培)(训)(的)(家)(庭)(平)(均)(花)(费)(更)(是)(达)(到)(了)(17832元)(。
消)(费)(升)(级)(背)(景)(下)(,二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(的)(早)(教)(市)(场)(仍)(有)(很)(大)(发)(展)(空)(间)(。2017年)(我)(国)(早)(幼)(教)(市)(场)(已)(经)(突)(破)(1900亿)(元)(,目)(前)(一)(线)(城)(市)(最)(为)(发)(达)(,以)(上)(海)(地)(区)(为)(例)(,其)(早)(幼)(教)(市)(场)(中)(约)(有)(729个)(品)(牌)(,共)(开)(设)(了)(约)(2151家)(培)(训)(机)(构)(,远)(超)(全)(国)(所)(有)(其)(他)(城)(市)(,上)(海)(、北)(京)(、深)(圳)(之)(外)(的)(二)(线)(城)(市)(,相)(比)(一)(线)(城)(市)(仍)(有)(较)(大)(差)(距)(。
根)(据)(家)(多)(易)(2016年)(度)(上)(半)(年)(的)(数)(据)(统)(计)(,全)(国)(11400余)(所)(早)(教)(机)(构)(中)(一)(线)(城)(市)(占)(全)(国)(比)(例)(达)(15.1%,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(早)(教)(机)(构)(缺)(量)(巨)(大)(,行)(业)(仍)(有)(很)(大)(发)(展)(空)(间)(。今)(年)(1月)(,《中)(国)(早)(教)(蓝)(皮)(书)(》2018年)(版)(发)(布)(了)(中)(国)(十)(大)(早)(教)(品)(牌)(排)(行)(榜)(,前)(十)(大)(机)(构)(在)(全)(国)(总)(计)(拥)(有)(3600余)(家)(门)(店)(,就)(门)(店)(数)(量)(而)(言)(CR10约)(为)(30%,早)(教)(市)(场)(具)(备)(一)(定)(连)(锁)(化)(,比)(如)(美)(吉)(姆)((400余)(家)()、金)(宝)(贝)((360余)(家)()等)(。
3展)(望)(2019年)(,民)(办)(学)(校)(领)(域)(建)(议)(重)(点)(关)(注)(高)(教)(板)(块)(
K12培)(训)(之)(外)(,民)(办)(学)(校)(正)(迎)(来)(黄)(金)(发)(展)(期)(。按)(照)(学)(生)(的)(年)(龄)(阶)(段)(,学)(历)(教)(育)(一)(般)(可)(以)(分)(为)(基)(础)(教)(育)(阶)(段)((一)(般)(18岁)(以)(下)(,K12包)(括)(幼)(儿)(园)(、小)(学)(、初)(中)(、高)(中)()以)(及)(高)(等)(教)(育)(阶)(段)((一)(般)(18岁)(以)(上)(,大)(专)(、本)(科)(及)(研)(究)(生)(),其)(中)(基)(础)(教)(育)(阶)(段)(的)(小)(学)(和)(初)(中)(为)(义)(务)(教)(育)(。由)(于)(2016年)(修)(订)(的)(《民)(办)(教)(育)(促)(进)(法)(》明)(确)(规)(定)(了)(不)(得)(设)(立)(实)(施)(义)(务)(教)(育)(的)(营)(利)(性)(民)(办)(学)(校)(、2018年)(11月)(出)(台)(的)(《关)(于)(学)(前)(教)(育)(深)(化)(改)(革)(规)(范)(发)(展)(的)(若)(干)(意)(见)(》禁)(止)(幼)(儿)(园)(资)(产)(上)(市)(,因)(此)(我)(们)(认)(为)(未)(来)(可)(以)(选)(择)(注)(册)(为)(营)(利)(性)(的)(高)(教)(板)(块)(在)(法)(律)(合)(规)(性)(方)(面)(更)(佳)(。
我)(国)(高)(等)(教)(育)(资)(源)(分)(布)(不)(均)(,欠)(发)(达)(省)(份)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(亟)(待)(提)(升)(。2016年)(我)(国)(高)(等)(教)(育)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(为)(42.7%,2017年)(1月)(教)(育)(部)(发)(布)(的)(国)(家)(教)(育)(事)(业)(“十)(三)(五)(”规)(划)(要)(求)(到)(2020年)(我)(国)(高)(等)(教)(育)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(达)(到)(50%水)(平)(,至)(2017年)(我)(国)(高)(等)(教)(育)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(提)(高)(到)(45.7%,高)(校)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(亟)(待)(提)(升)(。
同)(时)(国)(内)(高)(校)(教)(育)(资)(源)(分)(布)(十)(分)(不)(均)(匀)(,公)(办)(“双)(一)(流)(”高)(校)(仍)(以)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(、南)(京)(、武)(汉)(、西)(安)(等)(少)(数)(城)(市)(为)(主)(,而)(部)(分)(教)(育)(欠)(发)(达)(省)(份)(和)(地)(区)(则)(面)(临)(优)(质)(高)(等)(院)(校)(很)(少)(,甚)(至)(高)(等)(教)(育)(的)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(也)(都)(处)(于)(较)(低)(水)(平)(,如)(2016年)(云)(南)(省)(高)(等)(教)(育)(毛)(入)(学)(率)(仅)(为)(32.6%、新)(疆)(省)(为)(35.3%、江)(西)(省)(为)(39.5%,即)(使)(经)(济)(发)(达)(的)(广)(东)(省)(也)(仅)(为)(35.1%,未)(来)(提)(升)(空)(间)(很)(大)(。从)(学)(生)(角)(度)(来)(看)(本)(科)(和)(具)(备)(特)(色)(的)(专)(科)(仍)(具)(备)(较)(强)(吸)(引)(力)(,2017年)(我)(国)(高)(考)(人)(数)(940万)(人)(,广)(东)(、江)(西)(、广)(西)(、河)(南)(等)(省)(份)(本)(科)(录)(取)(率)(在)(40%附)(近)(,考)(虑)(到)(全)(国)(平)(均)(只)(有)(约)(50%人)(实)(现)(初)(中)(升)(高)(中)(,即)(上)(了)(本)(科)(意)(味)(着)(在)(学)(历)(方)(面)(超)(过)(3/4的)(同)(龄)(人)(。
发)(展)(民)(办)(院)(校)(有)(助)(于)(减)(轻)(政)(府)(财)(政)(负)(担)(。2016年)(我)(国)(高)(等)(教)(育)(总)(经)(费)(为)(10124.65亿)(元)(,其)(中)(学)(杂)(费)(占)(比)(21.5%,国)(家)(财)(政)(性)(教)(育)(经)(费)(占)(比)(62.1%,原)(因)(在)(于)(公)(办)(高)(校)(承)(担)(着)(公)(益)(性)(教)(育)(的)(重)(大)(使)(命)(,学)(费)(收)(取)(金)(额)(较)(低)(,而)(来)(自)(政)(府)(的)(补)(贴)(是)(主)(要)(资)(金)(来)(源)(。微)(观)(层)(面)(,以)(一)(个)(普)(通)(省)(级)(公)(立)(大)(学)(——河)(南)(大)(学)(为)(例)(,2017年)(其)(收)(入)(为)(1.79亿)(元)(,其)(中)(财)(政)(拨)(款)(占)(比)(40%左)(右)(,若)(仅)(以)(学)(费)(作)(为)(收)(入)(来)(源)(难)(以)(支)(撑)(公)(立)(大)(学)(的)(生)(存)(发)(展)(。
反)(观)(民)(办)(高)(校)(则)(有)(所)(不)(同)(,2016年)(我)(国)(民)(办)(高)(等)(教)(育)(行)(业)(总)(收)(入)(达)(到)(1030亿)(元)(,从)(目)(前)(已)(经)(上)(市)(的)(民)(办)(高)(校)(来)(看)(,其)(净)(利)(率)(水)(平)(普)(遍)(在)(20-50%之)(间)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(在)(于)(民)(办)(高)(校)(的)(学)(费)(一)(般)(是)(公)(立)(高)(校)(的)(2-4倍)(,民)(办)(学)(校)(在)(收)(取)(学)(生)(学)(费)(方)(面)(的)(放)(开)(有)(助)(于)(其)(提)(高)(收)(入)(、自)(身)(独)(立)(生)(产)(和)(发)(展)(,因)(此)(发)(展)(民)(办)(高)(校)(有)(助)(于)(减)(轻)(政)(府)(的)(教)(育)(经)(费)(支)(出)(压)(力)(。
独)(立)(学)(院)(剥)(离)(增)(供)(给)(与)(上)(市)(公)(司)(并)(购)(。2016年)(我)(国)(民)(办)(高)(校)(达)(到)(742所)((含)(独)(立)(学)(院)(266所)(),民)(办)(高)(校)(总)(体)(占)(比)(并)(未)(有)(太)(大)(变)(化)(,但)(是)(其)(中)(独)(立)(学)(院)(数)(量)(正)(逐)(渐)(减)(少)(,在)(今)(年)(8月)(份)(司)(法)(部)(发)(布)(的)(《中)(华)(人)(民)(共)(和)(国)(民)(办)(教)(育)(促)(进)(法)(实)(施)(条)(例)((修)(订)(草)(案)()(送)(审)(稿)()》中)(也)(明)(确)(要)(求)(“禁)(止)(公)(办)(学)(校)(举)(办)(或)(者)(参)(与)(举)(办)(营)(利)(性)(学)(校)(,且)(公)(办)(学)(校)(不)(得)(以)(品)(牌)(输)(出)(方)(式)(获)(得)(收)(益)(”,未)(来)(独)(立)(学)(院)(的)(剥)(离)(将)(加)(速)(,从)(而)(给)(上)(市)(公)(司)(带)(来)(新)(的)(并)(购)(标)(的)(供)(给)(。以)(新)(高)(教)(集)(团)(、中)(教)(控)(股)(等)(公)(司)(上)(市)(为)(标)(志)(,上)(市)(后)(开)(始)(大)(规)(模)(并)(购)(,如)(新)(高)(教)(从)(2011年)(的)(1家)(学)(校)(发)(展)(到)(如)(今)(的)(7-8家)(高)(教)(院)(校)(。
4A股)(相)(关)(标)(的)(
亚)(夏)(汽)(车)(——中)(公)(教)(育)(借)(壳)(上)(市)(,非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(就)(业)(培)(训)(龙)(头)(即)(将)(登)(陆)(A股)(
2018年)(11月)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(亚)(夏)(汽)(车)(发)(布)(公)(告)(,其)(重)(大)(资)(产)(重)(组)((重)(组)(上)(市)()获)(证)(监)(会)(有)(条)(件)(通)(过)(,具)(体)(方)(案)(如)(下)(:
(1)资)(产)(置)(入)(与)(置)(出)(:上)(市)(公)(司)(通)(过)(向)(李)(永)(新)(等)(11名)(交)(易)(对)(方)(发)(行)(股)(份)(购)(买)(拟)(置)(入)(资)(产)(超)(出)(拟)(置)(出)(资)(产)(价)(值)(的)(差)(额)(部)(分)(,价)(值)(171.65亿)(元)(,需)(发)(行)(股)(份)(46.90亿)(股)(,对)(应)(发)(行)(股)(价)(为)(3.66元)(/股)(。其)(中)(,拟)(置)(入)(资)(产)(为)(:中)(公)(教)(育)(100%股)(权)(,作)(价)(185亿)(元)(。置)(出)(资)(产)(为)(:原)(有)(上)(市)(公)(司)(除)(保)(留)(资)(产)(以)(外)(的)(全)(部)(资)(产)(与)(负)(债)(,作)(价)(13.35亿)(元)((经)(三)(季)(报)(分)(红)(后)(价)(格)(调)(整)(为)(10.15亿)(元)(),由)(亚)(夏)(实)(业)(承)(接)(。
(2)老)(股)(转)(让)(:亚)(夏)(实)(业)(分)(别)(向)(中)(公)(合)(伙)(、中)(公)(教)(育)(实)(际)(控)(制)(人)(李)(永)(新)(转)(让)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(份)(0.8亿)(股)(、0.73亿)(股)(。其)(中)(,中)(公)(合)(伙)(以)(10.15亿)(元)(受)(让)(0.8亿)(股)(的)(股)(价)(为)(12.69元)(/股)(,李)(永)(新)(以)(10亿)(元)(现)(金)(受)(让)(0.73亿)(股)(亚)(夏)(汽)(车)(股)(票)(,对)(应)(股)(价)(为)(13.76元)(/股)(。
(3)业)(绩)(承)(诺)(:本)(次)(交)(易)(中)(李)(永)(新)(等)(8名)(业)(绩)(补)(偿)(承)(诺)(中)(公)(教)(育)(2018、2019及)(2020扣)(非)(后)(归)(母)(净)(利)(润)(数)(分)(别)(不)(低)(于)(9.3亿)(元)(、13亿)(元)(和)(16.5亿)(元)(,本)(次)(收)(购)(对)(应)(2018年)(估)(值)(为)(20倍)(PE。
(4)补)(偿)(措)(施)(:若)(经)(注)(册)(会)(计)(师)(审)(核)(确)(认)(,中)(公)(教)(育)(在)(三)(个)(会)(计)(年)(度)(内)(截)(至)(当)(期)(期)(末)(累)(积)(的)(实)(际)(净)(利)(润)(数)(未)(能)(达)(到)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(人)(承)(诺)(的)(截)(至)(当)(期)(期)(末)(累)(积)(承)(诺)(净)(利)(润)(数)(,应)(由)(各)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(人)(按)(本)(次)(交)(易)(前)(持)(有)(中)(公)(教)(育)(股)(份)(数)(占)(所)(有)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(人)(在)(本)(次)(交)(易)(前)(合)(计)(持)(有)(中)(公)(教)(育)(股)(份)(数)(的)(比)(例)(承)(担)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(。所)(有)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(人)(优)(先)(以)(股)(份)(进)(行)(补)(偿)(,当)(股)(份)(补)(偿)(总)(数)(达)(到)(本)(次)(发)(行)(股)(份)(购)(买)(资)(产)(发)(行)(的)(股)(份)(总)(数)(的)(90%后)(,由)(所)(有)(补)(偿)(义)(务)(人)(以)(现)(金)(进)(行)(补)(偿)(。当)(期)(补)(偿)(金)(额)(=(截)(至)(当)(期)(期)(末)(累)(积)(承)(诺)(净)(利)(润)(数)(-截)(至)(当)(期)(期)(末)(累)(积)(实)(现)(净)(利)(润)(数)()÷利)(润)(补)(偿)(期)(限)(内)(各)(年)(的)(承)(诺)(净)(利)(润)(数)(总)(和)(×中)(公)(教)(育)(本)(次)(交)(易)(作)(价)(-累)(积)(已)(补)(偿)(金)(额)(。
(5)本)(次)(交)(易)(完)(成)(后)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(实)(际)(控)(制)(人)(变)(更)(为)(李)(永)(新)(和)(鲁)(忠)(芳)(,合)(计)(持)(股)(比)(例)(为)(58.77%,亚)(夏)(实)(业)(不)(再)(持)(有)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(份)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(主)(要)(资)(产)(变)(更)(为)(中)(公)(教)(育)(100%股)(权)(。
中)(公)(教)(育)(是)(国)(内)(非)(学)(历)(职)(业)(就)(业)(培)(训)(龙)(头)(,主)(要)(向)(大)(学)(毕)(业)(生)(提)(供)(公)(务)(员)(、事)(业)(单)(位)(、教)(师)(等)(泛)(公)(职)(的)(招)(录)(培)(训)(。截)(至)(2018年)(4月)(30日)(,中)(公)(教)(育)(已)(覆)(盖)(31个)(省)(市)(自)(治)(区)(319个)(地)(级)(行)(政)(区)(,拥)(有)(619个)(直)(营)(分)(支)(机)(构)(,全)(职)(授)(课)(教)(师)(7264名)(,员)(工)(总)(人)(数)(2.26万)(人)(,在)(北)(京)(地)(区)(市)(场)(占)(有)(率)(达)(到)(30%,其)(他)(地)(区)(市)(占)(率)(亦)(处)(于)(领)(先)(位)(置)(。
2017年)(中)(公)(教)(育)(实)(现)(收)(入)(40.31亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(56.0%,归)(母)(净)(利)(润)(5.25亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(60.7%。2017年)(底)(直)(营)(分)(支)(机)(构)(达)(到)(582个)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(31.1%。作)(为)(中)(公)(教)(育)(的)(主)(要)(培)(训)(方)(式)(,2017年)(面)(授)(培)(训)(占)(收)(入)(比)(重)(为)(93.0%,面)(授)(培)(训)(次)(数)(达)(到)(88.24万)(人)(次)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(42.5%。
中)(公)(教)(育)(主)(要)(面)(授)(培)(训)(领)(域)(包)(括)(:中)(央)(机)(关)(及)(其)(直)(属)(机)(构)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(、地)(方)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(、事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(、教)(师)(招)(录)(及)(教)(师)(资)(格)(培)(训)((教)(考)(培)(训)()等)(,囊)(括)(大)(班)(授)(课)(、小)(班)(教)(学)(、一)(对)(多)(、一)(对)(一)(等)(多)(种)(形)(式)(。
公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(面)(授)(培)(训)(是)(公)(司)(核)(心)(业)(务)(,收)(入)(增)(长)(得)(益)(于)(培)(训)(人)(次)(增)(长)(和)(单)(价)(提)(升)(。2017年)(中)(公)(教)(育)(的)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)((面)(授)()收)(入)(为)(20.66亿)(元)(,收)(入)(占)(比)(为)(51.3%,收)(入)(同)(比)(增)(长)(35.1%;培)(训)(人)(次)(为)(37.3万)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(17.4%;每)(人)(次)(平)(均)(收)(入)(为)(5822元)(,同)(比)(提)(升)(5.2%。教)(师)(招)(录)(及)(教)(师)(资)(格)(面)(授)(培)(训)(收)(入)(增)(速)(最)(快)(,2017年)(为)(6.7亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(100.1%,但)(其)(毛)(利)(率)(仅)(为)(43.17%,低)(于)(公)(务)(员)(招)(录)(培)(训)(64.94%的)(毛)(利)(率)(。事)(业)(单)(位)(招)(录)(培)(训)(2017年)(收)(入)(为)(5.69亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(91.1%。医)(疗)(卫)(生)(、电)(网)(电)(力)(等)(其)(他)(招)(录)(培)(训)(考)(试)(收)(入)(为)(4.43亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(85.6%。
三)(垒)(股)(份)(——收)(购)(早)(教)(龙)(头)(美)(吉)(姆)(,二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(下)(沉)(仍)(有)(巨)(大)(空)(间)(
2018年)(11月)(29日)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(三)(垒)(股)(份)(发)(布)(公)(告)(已)(完)(成)(对)(美)(吉)(姆)(股)(东)(变)(更)(。此)(次)(收)(购)(美)(吉)(姆)(作)(价)(33亿)(元)(,全)(部)(现)(金)(交)(易)(,其)(中)(:上)(市)(公)(司)(拟)(出)(资)(70%,合)(计)(23.10亿)(元)(;第)(三)(方)(投)(资)(者)(拟)(出)(资)(30%,合)(计)(9.90亿)(元)(,本)(次)(交)(易)(不)(构)(成)(重)(组)(上)(市)(。交)(易)(共)(分)(5期)(支)(付)(现)(金)(,第)(一)(期)(仅)(支)(付)(6.6亿)(元)(,第)(二)(期)(10.4亿)(元)((完)(成)(工)(商)(变)(更)()、第)(三)(期)(4亿)(元)((18年)(底)()、第)(四)(期)(4亿)(元)((19年)(6月)()、第)(五)(期)(8亿)(元)((19年)(底)()。标)(的)(方)(股)(东)(在)(收)(到)(第)(二)(期)(交)(易)(款)(后)(在)(12个)(月)(内)(增)(持)(三)(垒)(股)(票)(,不)(低)(于)(9.9亿)(元)(,不)(高)(于)(上)(市)(公)(司)(股)(份)(18%,2018、19、20年)(完)(成)(业)(绩)(承)(诺)(后)(解)(锁)(40%、30%、30%。
标)(的)(公)(司)(主)(要)(依)(托)(“美)(吉)(姆)(”早)(教)(品)(牌)(相)(关)(知)(识)(产)(权)(、课)(程)(及)(运)(营)(体)(系)(等)(内)(容)(,向)(早)(教)(中)(心)(提)(供)(广)(泛)(的)(授)(权)(加)(盟)(服)(务)(并)(收)(取)(特)(许)(经)(营)(服)(务)(费)(,以)(及)(通)(过)(2家)(早)(教)(中)(心)(向)(学)(员)(销)(售)(课)(程)(及)(提)(供)(教)(学)(服)(务)(,以)(及)(向)(早)(教)(中)(心)(销)(售)(产)(品)(。美)(吉)(姆)(早)(教)(课)(程)(主)(要)(包)(括)(欢)(动)(课)(、艺)(术)(课)(和)(音)(乐)(课)(。截)(至)(2018年)(6月)(30日)(,美)(杰)(姆)(签)(约)(早)(教)(中)(心)(共)(有)(389家)(,其)(中)(加)(盟)(中)(心)(387家)(,直)(营)(中)(心)(2家)(。其)(中)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(70家)(、二)(线)(城)(市)((省)(会)(及)(部)(分)(经)(济)(发)(达)(城)(市)()207家)(、三)(线)(及)(以)(下)(为)(112家)(。
2018年)(上)(半)(年)(标)(的)(方)(美)(吉)(姆)(收)(入)(为)(1.50亿)(元)(,归)(母)(净)(利)(润)(为)(0.62亿)(元)(,净)(利)(率)(为)(41.7%。本)(次)(收)(购)(的)(业)(绩)(承)(诺)(为)(2018、2019、2020年)(标)(的)(实)(现)(净)(利)(润)(分)(别)(不)(低)(于)(人)(民)(币)(1.80亿)(元)(、2.38亿)(元)(、2.90亿)(元)(。(在)(计)(算)(标)(的)(公)(司)(2018年)(度)(承)(诺)(净)(利)(润)(与)(实)(际)(净)(利)(润)(时)(,假)(设)(其)(已)(经)(于)(2018年)(1月)(1日)(完)(成)(了)(业)(务)(重)(组)(以)(及)(标)(的)(公)(司)(直)(营)(中)(心)(剥)(离)(事)(宜)()。
从)(收)(费)(模)(式)(来)(看)(,标)(的)(公)(司)(向)(加)(盟)(早)(教)(中)(心)(提)(供)(服)(务)(获)(得)(的)(收)(入)(主)(要)(包)(括)(初)(始)(授)(权)(费)((30-50万)()、持)(续)(授)(权)(费)((10万)(左)(右)()和)(市)(场)(推)(广)(费)((权)(益)(金)(&推)(广)(基)(金)(收)(入)(指)(加)(盟)(早)(教)(中)(心)(在)(加)(盟)(期)(间)(按)(其)(总)(收)(入)(的)(9%缴)(纳)()。2017年)(特)(许)(经)(营)(加)(盟)(费)(是)(公)(司)(主)(要)(收)(入)(来)(源)(,占)(比)(为)(65%。
从)(美)(吉)(姆)(2016年)(以)(来)(的)(成)(长)(来)(看)(,二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(的)(网)(点)(数)(量)(快)(速)(增)(加)(是)(增)(长)(主)(要)(驱)(动)(力)(。2016、2017、2018H1美)(吉)(姆)(二)(线)(城)(市)(经)(营)(满)(一)(年)(的)(网)(点)(数)(量)(分)(别)(为)(100、134、167个)(,三)(线)(城)(市)(经)(营)(满)(一)(年)(的)(网)(点)(数)(量)(分)(别)(为)(43、66、87个)(,预)(计)(二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(早)(教)(渗)(透)(率)(未)(来)(仍)(将)(继)(续)(提)(升)(。
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